It is only projected to be almost back at the 2% target in 2025.įaced with these high inflation rates, the Governing Council of the ECB has made an unprecedented change to the monetary policy stance. 1 The euro area rate will probably significantly exceed the target rate again in 2024, at an average of 2.9%. Just this March, it reached the new record high of 5.7% in the euro area, and fell by just one-tenth of a percentage point in April. The March ECB staff projections suggest that inflation will decline only gradually. Whilst it is true that the headline rate of inflation has fallen back markedly from its peak in autumn 2022, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, continued to climb persistently. That's still significantly above the ECB Governing Council's medium-term target of 2%. Measured in terms of the HICP, consumer prices in Germany climbed by 7.6% on the year in April, whilst in the euro area, the inflation rate stood at 7.0%. The German economy has proven itself to be more resilient and more adaptable than it is often believed to be.īut what's far too high right now is inflation. But the current quarter is now expected to see a moderate rise real GDP is likely to increase somewhat on average in 2023. True, the braking effect of higher energy prices in particular made itself felt for a while, and German economic output contracted by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. Germany's economy has weathered the fallout from the pandemic and the war better than had been feared for a time. But true to the upbeat conference title of bolstering confidence, let me begin with some comparatively cheery news from Germany. And there are other developments as well which are putting many countries to a stiff test – the digital transformation is just one topic I could mention here. The war poses potentially a threat to the tried-and-tested system of international cooperation and is placing a strain on the global economy.īut surely everyone must grasp that the major global challenges we face in our time – first and foremost, climate change – can only be overcome if we pull together. Following on from the coronavirus pandemic, Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has sparked deep uncertainty and sent anxiety levels soaring around the globe. Rarely has the immediate future been as incalculable und unpredictable as it was over the past three years. And we are living through turbulent times, there is no doubt about that. None more so than in times of turbulence, when trust and confidence provide an essential basis. You see, confidence is a central bank's most valuable asset when it comes to fulfilling its tasks to the best of its abilities.
As a central banker, I can certainly relate to the conference title, " bolstering confidence".
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